Oil prices eased as ceasefire talks advanced, but markets defused the Hormuz crisis first, rapidly shifting supply and demand and turning a feared shortage into a mini‑glut.

The IEA said on Wednesday that a lasting resolution to the conflict could drive a surge in supply volumes and trigger a major oil overhang next year.

Investors and analysts have spent much of the year embracing the view that the oil market, which has been in oversupply mode, is heading straight for a glut through 2026 — and that glut could reach as high as 4 million barrels per day (b/d) and depress ...